An Ode To Once And Future Legends

I apologize for how longwinded this is going to be. It's been a long time since I've had the motivation to produce anything, I've had a few cocktails, and I just feel like I have to get this out before I provide My Dirty 50: My half-assed list of the top prospects in the Cardinals organization.

Let’s have a talk about the prospects in the Cardinals organization, operating under the assumption that the players that have made a Major League debut - but are still considered prospects - aren’t allowed into the conversation. So, let's omit Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Thomas Saggese. I guess I have to bring up Michael Helman and Jose Fermin, too, but they aren't real. Neither is Ryan Loutos, nor are any of the other weird relievers that have made an MLB debut.

FIRST, boi oh boi this group is thin. I mean, it's FINE, but when you take away the first eight or so names, it’s as thin of a group of top end talent that the Cardinals have had in maybe 20 years? 30? Then, outside of the first two prospects on the list (Mathews and Wetherholt), the next six names are flawed prospects. On top of that, I guess it’s safe to assume that this is actually the second season in a row that it’s this thin on talent. Especially with the early rounds 2024 draft arm gambles in 3rd round pick Brian Holiday and 5th round pick Braden Davis. They’re better off for having Wetherholt in the organization most obviously, but they didn’t do themselves any favors from a P.R. or ranking standpoint with the relatively low ceiling, low floor arms combo that I just mentioned. Which is made even more comical because I'm the high man on both of these players relative to other "evaluators" (See, also: blowhards, talking head, etc). The good news is that the dope from the backfields involves a lot of raving about the early returns for both Holiday and Davis.

But that is really the crux of the entire organization currently, isn’t it? That being what the new pitching development group can do to maximize the arms that are already in the organization. For years now, the scouting group has been filling the request of the development group – formerly run by also-rans – to select a certain-type pitcher in the early rounds of the draft at the detriment of the organization. As dramatic of a sentence as it is to write and say, there is no doubt at all that the long-term health of the organization rest solely on the new instructors and coaches that the front office has brought in. Because as we enter the 2025 season, if we ignore the strides that they’ve already made and transport ourselves back to the end of the 2024 season, there are very few arms that’ll make an MLB debut. Which obviously means that there are even fewer arms capable of providing MLB impact. Again, if the backfield returns are to be believed, that end of 2024 snapshot just might be the last snapshot that we have of organizational pitching development incompetence for some time.

Then, add on top of that the thinnest group of hitting prospects within three levels of the majors that we've seen in years and you have an organization balancing on the knifes edge of development disaster. Do you want to know why the Cardinals are operating at a breakneck pace to inform you about Yairo Padilla and Fucking Nathan Church??? It’s because they know it. They absolutely KNOW that things are going to have to go almost perfectly for them to make a quick turnaround as an organization, and the chances of that quick turnaround are near zero. Sure, a turnaround is certainly something that is within even an expected outcome, but the pace is nearly insurmountable without the guys currently at the ML making those developmental leaps (and that's where the failure is, we'll get to that. Also, it's why we have the gap in hitting talent at the upper levels). Padilla and Jonathan Mejia are not the same, but they are both a reminder that development is slow, and it's best optimized when it's managed slowly and intentional. There's a fun thing going on with national evaluators where they're trying to find the next Jackson Chourio in every organization, and that's why we are seeing so many non-stateside bats make it on to team's top prospect lists as compared to years past. I'll buy into both when they start hitting for something resembling the power that Rainiel Rodriguez has displayed, because I've seen enough of the good swing deciders at the complex and below absolutely stall out once they get to the more advanced levels of the minors. "CoreFour" be damned.

The Cardinals absolutely need a win from the international signing side. Ivan Herrera is capable of providing quite a bit of value in both the short and long-term, but the Cardinals need something MORE. I would imagine that is also why the Cardinals are pushing prospects like Rodriguez, Padilla, and Mejia (to a lesser extent); because they know this. Branneli Franco can't throw strikes, Kenly Hunter is slap hitter, and Royel Strop is fun but flawed and far away. Hype goes a long way for job security in the prospect business. Never forget this. Especially when there have been little ML returns for the work that has been done in every corner of the international scene. Padilla and Rodriguez could very well be that. Here's to hoping, especially with Rodriguez because that bat could be FUN.

Now, this isn’t all about development and the development staff. Yes, of course the organization suffered because of the lack of instructors and forward thinkers as compared to other organizations, but the biggest act of organizational criminality (look at me being all dramatic) comes with having Turner Ward as hitting coach simply because established big leaguers vouched for him (big leaguers, mind you, that were incapable of handling the locker room themselves and failed to "facilitate connectiveness" between the kids and vets, aside from players like Nootbaar admired Arenado so much that he was kind of like a puppy dog at first, and Pedro Pages who has the admiration and trust of the current pitching staff even though most of the pitchers gain no statistical advantage throwing to him). It's been tumultuous at the ML level over the last couple of years, with Mr. Marmol being put in a position by the town elders to roast Tyler O'Neill and move then-newly signed catcher Willson Contreras off of the tools of ignorance, amongst other, lesser things. Which of course says nothing for the urge to sign veteran leadership which buoyed the Cardinals above .500 for the season, but without the added benefit of development at the ML for the prospects not named Masyn Winn that will matter for long-term success.

It’s hard to modernize at the ML level when your best instructor heads to Arkansas to coach softball and you’re hitting coach is as forward thinking as Pol Pot and as modern as a tee pee, as he feels his world choking out around him.  I’m not the world’s biggest Brant Brown fan, but there is an argument to be made that the biggest move of the offseason for the MLB-ready development of prospects came the minute that Turner Ward was sent away. Bon Voyage, good sir. You are a kind and thoughtful baseball mind two decades too late. Maybe only one decade too late, to be fair. The game is moving quicker than ever.

I’ve gone off topic. Let’s get back to my Dirty Prospects list, and my general thoughts about the current state of the organization.

As I mentioned before that rant occurred, the Cardinals have eight clear top ten prospects. These are prospects that could be top 10-15 prospects in every organization. Then they have another ten-ish guys that have the chance to be top 5-20 prospects in every organization if development goes correctly in the next year. Those ten are Travis Honeyman, Brian Holiday, Darlin Saladin, Yairo Padilla, Rainiel Rodriguez, Andrew Dutkanych, Chen-Wei Lin, Luis Gastelum, and Zack Showalter. MAYBE Braden Davis, but only because there’s been a lot of positives coming from the backfields. Otherwise, aside from maybe Nolan Sparks, this is a group of back-20 prospects in an above average organization's top 50. A cluster of about 30 players that could easily be prospects 20-30 in any organization as odd and as contradictory as that sounds. It really is a thin group of talent between prospects 9-20, albeit built around a lot of hope. That’s why I have Travis Honeyman and Brian Holiday as prospects 9 and 10 on my list: because they’re the only prospects with the present talent and future potential to fit the bridge-mold between the rest of the weird-type talent in the organization.

Now, this isn’t all to shit on the organization, as that is not my intent. I firmly believe in the scouting staff, especially once they get a chance to get away from whatever the crap it was that Grandpa Gary was asking for. I also believe heavily in the new people – coaches and instructors, as well as the front office brass – that have been brought in. From Cerfolio to Pierpont to Goforth and everyone in between, these are highly respected people within the business. Larry Day could be troubling old school, but not fully in the way of Grandpa Gary and the old regime. He appears to be open minded and open to learning at the very least, and that in itself is a huge upgrade.

I also haven’t stopped believing in Russ Steinhorn and what is going on with the hitting development side. Sure, it’s clear that letting Tyger Peterson move on was costly and on a level that the Cardinals probably aren’t aware or have considered, but Brock Hammit appears to ABSOLUTELY GET IT in regards to hitting development and the delicate and intimate dance that is ever-present in the modern age of pitcher-dominated baseball. The developmental hell of the promising hitting prospects has happened solely at the ML level (as I wipe Josh Baez, Tre Fletcher, and Ryan Holgate out of existence), so it’s up to Mr. Brown and his crew to make it all work on the toughest stage. Over the next couple of months, you're going to be hearing about the core four (ball flight, bat speed, bat to ball skills, and swing decision) as well as underload and overload training as the Cardinals look to get the most of their hitting prospects. These are all good things, but I'll be anxious to see how the Cardinals refine it since the rest of the league is already on to all of this.

You're also going to be hearing a lot about how good the communication is in the organization. From coaches to instructors to the front office, to even the players at the lowest levels of the minors, it does really sound like the organization has worked to get everyone on the same page and to get their entire shit back together in the process. Obviously, this would be a big win.

Regardless of all of the trash talking that I just did, I oddly believe in the developmental and scouting direction of the St. Louis Cardinals. Something that I haven't been able to fully believe or buy into since before COVID.

So now we have to hope that half-ass starters like Dakota Hudson end up in the pen and real starters like Ryan Helsley don't get marooned in the bullpen like the ineptitude of the prior regime.

What a time to be a Cardinals fan.