Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of John Gant's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
17 games, 15 innings
2.40 ERA, 2.19 FIP, 1.067 WHIP
10.800 K/9, 4.200 BB/9, 2.57 K:BB
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
40 games (15 start, 25 relief), 100 innings, 5.000 IP/GS
2.97 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.200 WHIP 8.910 K/9, 3.960 BB/9, 2.25 K:BB
This is unrealistic to ask of John Gant stepping into and out of the rotation, I feel. However, wouldn't this be a breath of fresh air? This has elements of what I'm looking for out of Gant, though. I believe that he's refining pitches and that his Ks and BBs line above could look similar to this.
THE BAD
(worst case)
40 games (15 start, 25 relief), 100 innings, 5.000 IP/GS 3.60 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 1.440 WHIP 7.470 K/9, 4.680 BB/9, 1.60 K:BB
This one also has elements of what I believe 2021 John Gant will be. That ERA/FIP/WHIP line looks similar to what I think he will be this year.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
40 games (15 start, 25 relief), 100 innings, 5.000 IP/GS 3.29 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 1.313 WHIP 8.152 K/9, 4.293 BB/9, 1.90 K:BB
If all of my projections come true, I foresee the Cardinals going 8-7 in his starts.
John Gant gets a chance this year to show he can start and be a viable option in the rotation. If he puts up what my projections say, then he'll definitely have a shot at staying in the rotation for a while. If not, then I feel like he's going to go back to a solidified role in the bullpen until/unless he gets too expensive.
So if we put together the two elements from above that I think will happen with Gant this year, we get a player who throws 100 innings of 3.60 ERA, 4ish FIP ball with a 1.40ish WHIP who strikes out a man an inning and walks under 4 (for a 2.25 or better K:BB both as a starter and as a reliever.
Also, to fit the offseason narrative: John Gant is #good.
Link back to all of my projections.
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