Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Tyler O'Neill's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
157 PA - .173/.261/.360/.621
5 doubles, 0 triples, 7 homers
20 runs, 19 RBI, 3 SB, 1 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
495 PA - .264/.335/.520/.855
19 doubles, 1 triple, 31 homers
83 runs, 81 RBI, 8 SB, 1 CS
So this is why you hold on to TON and start him in LF this year giving him every chance to succeed. If you can have a gold glover who has less than 500 PA with 30+ bombs, you take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays, amirite?
THE BAD
(worst case)
409 PA - .216/.278/.426/.704
13 doubles, 1 triple, 21 homers
56 runs, 55 RBI, 5 SB, 1 CS
So this is my "worst case" projection from the system and it's not as bad as last year. That's gotta mean hopefully good things from TON this year. The bad thing, though, is that he could get 400 PA of this in this outfield this year.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
450 PA - .240/.307/.473/.780
15 doubles, 1 triple, 26 homers
69 runs, 67 RBI, 7 SB, 1 CS
THE CERUTTI is basically if we had a good defensive Marcell Ozuna (while he was here) but hitting for a lower average and thus getting on base a bit less. Well, and not penciled into the 4 hole no matter what because now we have Nolan Arenado for that.
Link back to all of my projections.
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