Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Tommy Edman's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
227 PA - .250/.317/.368/.685
7 doubles, 1 triple, 5 homers
29 runs, 26 RBI, 2 SB, 4 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
660 PA - .301/.360/.457/.817
30 doubles, 8 triples, 15 homers
105 runs, 71 RBI, 27 SB, 5 CS
You can see why people are on the Tommy Edman train. That OPS doesn't match his 2019 partial season production in the majors, nor his 2019 production from the minors - but it is a damn exciting season. Who wouldn't want to see a .300+ average, a .360+ OBP, 100+ runs, 70+ RBI, 30+ doubles, 20+ triples and homers, and 25+ SB from our leadoff hitting second baseman!?!?
That's also not super realistic for Edman, I don't believe. But it excites me that my projections system sees this as a possible outcome for Edman!!!
THE BAD
(worst case)
545 PA - .246/.300/.374/.674
21 doubles, 6 triples, 11 homers
71 runs, 48 RBI, 18 SB, 4 CS
Would anyone really be surprised if this is what Tommy Edman is over an entire season at second base? My MLE (major league equivalency) for Edman's 2018 production in the minors was a .678 OPS guy. He was a .685 OPS guy in the majors in 2020. So yeah, this is about what he was for two of the last three seasons. I'd bet this is more likely than THE GOOD, unfortunately.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
600 PA - .273/.331/.415/.746
25 doubles, 7 triples, 13 homers
87 runs, 58 RBI, 22 SB, 5 CS
As I said above, the THE GOOD projection excites me to no end. That's because I don't believe that Edman will do it. If he does, we're World Series contenders for sure.
I believe that THE CERUTTI is likely where we go with Tommy Edman realistically this year. I just think that an entire season grind on his shoulders of being THE GUY at a position is going to keep him at this level or below, personally. I hope I am wrong and THE GOOD comes out of this year for him. I really do. That would be...*chef's kiss*...beautiful.
Link back to all of my projections.
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