Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Kodi Whitley' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections (minor league numbers on bottom.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
4 games, 4 2/3 innings
1.93 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 0.643 WHIP
9.643 K/9, 1.929 BB/9, 5.00 K:BB
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
17 games, 17 2/3 innings
2.21 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 1.266 WHIP
11.238 K/9, 2.984 BB/9, 3.424 K:BB
So a couple of years back, I went ahead and anointed Giovanny Gallegos the next great Cardinals reliever right here in these projections. I don't know that I'm quite ready to do that just yet with Whitley because of 2020 being such a lost season for so many minor leaguers. But I'm close to doing so.
THE BAD
(worst case)
15 games, 15 innings
2.67 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 1.532 WHIP
9.287 K/9, 3.610 BB/9, 2.830 K:BB
Part of the reason I believe that Whitley could be the next in this line of guys like Brebbia, Gallegos, and more is that these projections are so close to one another - there isn't much spread on a guy like Whitley for some reason. Part of it might be that his minor league stats have been fairly consistent and that he's continued to do it at the higher levels in large-ish samples (over 75 innings in 2019 as a reliever).
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
16 games, 16 innings
2.43 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.392 WHIP
10.216 K/9, 3.282 BB/9, 3.11 K:BB
With so few innings projected, it's really hard to tell what's to come from Whitley, but boy if he does this - ANY OF THESE - then the Cardinals will sure be glad to have him for the playoffs and for 2022.
Link back to all of my projections.
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