Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Dylan Carlson's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2020 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2020 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2020
119 PA - .200/.252/.364/.616
7 doubles, 1 triples, 3 homers
11 runs, 16 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(Best case)
660 PA - .255/.340/.449/.789
32 doubles, 7 triples, 22 homers
96 runs, 80 RBI, 16 SB, 7 CS
I know a lot of people will look at this line and say that this should be THE CERUTTI and that THE GOOD should be a lot higher than that. If you've seen my projections before, you know that sometimes it takes a while to catch up to a guy statistically that hasn't played much above the low minors. 1) Dylan Carlson really hasn't played much above the low minors. However, there's also this: 2) Dylan Carlson had a very rough 2020 statistically. Yes, he made great strides the second time around in STL, but his most recent statistical sample is still 119 PA of YUCK at the highest level. If he is this guy statistically THIS YEAR, at age 22, the Cardinals and their fans should count their lucky stars. You know what Randal Grichuk did in his age 22 season? .245/.278/.400/.678 You know what Colby Rasmus did as a 22 year old in MLB? .251/.307/.407/.714. Yeah, I will take that above line, thankyouverymuch.
THE BAD
(worst case)
545 PA - .209/.284/.367/.651
22 doubles, 5 triples, 15 homers
65 runs, 54 RBI, 11 SB, 6 CS
So this is what bottoming out in 2021 would look like for Dylan Carlson, and the Cardinals. If the Cardinals allow Dylan Carlson to put up that line for 545 PA that means that 1) There is no minor league season thus no AAA to send him to and 2) the rest of the outfielders are also having (as Charles Barkley would say) TURRIBLE seasons.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
600 PA - .232/.313/.408/.721
27 doubles, 6 triples, 19 homers
79 runs, 66 RBI, 13 SB, 7 CS
I think that Dylan Carlson could very well fall in between THE BAD and THE CERUTTI in 2021.
That said, I believe that he will go the other way and fall in between THE GOOD and THE CERUTTI in 2021 instead. I'll go somewhere around 30 doubles, 5 triples, and 20 homers in 600ish plate appearances. That'd be a line close to .240/.330/.430/.760, just spit balling. He puts that up and steals double digit bases (hoping the CS stay at 5 or below) and we're looking at one quite successful rookie season.
Link back to all of my projections.
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