Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Jordan Hicks' career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
29 games, 28 2/3 innings
3.14 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 0.942 WHIP
9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.82 K:BB
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case)
20 games, 22 innings 3.22 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.295 WHIP 9.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.97 K:BB
These numbers are not as good as what Jordan Hicks was last year prior to his injury. However, coming back from his injury at the end of this year might not be the best he ever pitches again. That's kinda what these projections are showing, since this is "THE GOOD."
THE BAD
(worst case)
20 games, 18 innings 3.89 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.567 WHIP 7.9 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 1.63 K:BB
Jordan could come back to be this pitcher, and I wouldn't be surprised. This would be bad news, however.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection)
20 games, 20 innings 3.54 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.424 WHIP 8.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 1.79 K:BB
Jordan Hicks has been dominant his one and a half seasons in the majors. He is supposed to come back this year with about half of the year (or less) remaining. Considering how few innings Carlos Martinez got last year, I’m penciling Hicks in for just 20 innings in 2020. I could be wrong. I hope he recovers quickly - and well - and that it’s more because I just love watching him pitch. In any case, the projections are finally catching up with him at least a little bit. Pretty good actually, for a year where he will be coming back from an injury.
Anyway, here's video of Hicks doing what I love to watch:
As you can see, the projection system is starting to like his ERA/FIP more than it has the last couple of years. The WHIP and K:BB are still leaving a bit to be desired, but Hicks will likely beat those pretty well. After this year (assuming he pitches some) we should see these numbers start to really get a bit better in the projections. Now, if I can get the issues resolved regarding age at level - or even age at the majors - we’ll be looking great, I feel.
Link back to all of my projections.
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