Please check out the Projections Primer, to see how I come about getting these projections.
Prior to getting started, I want to take a look at the last three years of Austin Dean's career and his total career numbers, showing the statistics that I utilize in my projections.
The 2019 season is our most recent sample size and professional sports are often reduced to a "what have you done for me lately" business. Here is his 2019 season (majors only) separated from the rest 1) to highlight it and 2) to more easily come back to it for comparison purposes.
2019
189 PA - .225/.261/.404/.665 14 doubles, 0 triples, 6 homers 17 runs, 21 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS
This year, I plan to incorporate a couple of (I hope) interesting items to go along with the mean (average) projection. I am going to be adding in "THE GOOD" (an everything goes right)" projection and "THE BAD” (an everything went wrong)" projection prior to giving THE CERUTTI (my actual projection). THE GOOD is basically if a player is 10% better in a few of the listed categories while THE BAD is basically if a player is 10% worse in a few of the listed categories - based on THE CERUTTI projection, which is my 50th percentile-type projection that gets made every year by other projection services like STEAMER or ZiPS.
THE GOOD
(best case) 413 PA - .306/.365/.505/.869 24 doubles, 3 triples, 15 homers 60 runs, 64 RBI, 3 SB, 3 CS
Now this would be a pleasant surprise! The variability here is quite large with the sample of major league appearances so looking at the next one might give you anxiety the other way:
THE BAD
(worst case) 341 PA - .250/.303/.378/.681 13 doubles, 2 triples, 8 homers 40 runs, 43 RBI, 2 SB, 2 CS
A guy that can’t play defense with an OBP barely at .300 and a SLG under .380 is, ummmm, bad.
THE CERUTTI
(my system projection) 375 PA - .278/.335/.459/.793 20 doubles, 2 triples, 12 homers 49 runs, 52 RBI, 3 SB, 3 CS
I know next to nothing about Austin Dean except that he has not hit at the major league level (yet); but also, that he has hit like crazy at the minor league level in 2018-19. He’s hit well enough there these last two years that his projection has him doing quite well in 2020. I DO know enough to be able to say with relative ease that he will likely remind you of Ozuna or Martinez in the corner outfield defensively, so he MUST hit to stick around.
Link back to all of my projections.
Comments